I love Derrick Rose.
Not only do I love Derrick Rose, but if you, by any chance, do not love Derrick Rose, chances are that I don’t like you as a person.
He is young. He has the sort of athleticism that is usually preserved for mutated cyborgs. In his free time, he teaches Slovenian basketball players where babies come from. And – don’t let the NCAA hear this – he would have led his college to the national championship as a freshman if it weren’t for Mario Chalmers. It’s impossible not to relate to that – every single one of us, at some point in our life, has had our dreams ruined by Mario Chalmers.
All this, and more, does nothing to change the fact that Derrick Rose, as presently constructed, is overrated.
Now, before I am stoned to death by angry Bulls fans, allow me to clarify what I mean by overrated. The word overrated is defined by the free online dictionary as “to overestimate the merits of; rate too highly.” And yet, it is usually taken to mean “absolutely terrible.” For example: I think Kobe Bryant, until this season, has been overrated as a clutch performer. What I mean by this is that Kobe, while a great clutch performer, had an overblown reputation as an absolute clutch assassin, before catching up to that reputation this season (and man, it’s been mind-blowing to watch). What most people probably see in that sentence is “I hate Kobe Bryant and want him him to spend the rest of his life in Siberia without a coat.”
Such is the case with Derrick Rose. He is currently a very good basketball player and will hopefully evolve into an extremely good basketball player in the near future. However, the general conception that he has already made the leap to superstardom (as evidenced by his All-Star appearance and by numerous “is Derrick Rose a top 5 point guard/top 20 player” discussions throughout the web) is premature.
So, what makes Derrick Rose overrated?
First of all, he is an inefficient scorer. He’s not nearly up to Monta Ellis levels, but his 20.4 points per game average is much less impressive once you factor in that he needs 17.6 shots per game to reach it. In fact, his true shooting of 52.4% is a staggering 195th in the league in the league amongst qualifying players (228th overall), and 35th (of 67) among point guards. Pretty mediocre for a player whose main skill is scoring the ball.
But Rose’s offensive deficiencies go deeper that a random number that turns out to be middle of the pack. His overall offensive arsenal just isn’t there yet. Most of Rose’s points come off the same move: he uses his elite speed to blow past his defender, before either stepping back for a mid-range jumper or taking a floater/layup at the rim – usually the former. This is a problem with Rose: he has a very good mid-range jumper, making 43% of his long 2s while only being assisted on 34% of them (courtesy of Hoopdata), but it is still the least-efficient shot in basketball. And yet, of Rose’s 17.8 shots per game, 7.2 of them come from between 16 to 23 feet, with an additional 2.4 from 10 to 15 feet. In fact, Rose is 3rd in the league at shot attempts from that range, despite being only 112th in the league in percentage from that range. This is an obviously skewed stat – better players take more shots, regardless of the range – but it does tell you that Rose is taking way too many long 2s.
On the flip side, of the three most efficient ways to score the basketball – taking shots at the rim, getting to the free throw line, and making threes – Rose only excels at the first. His three point shot is nearly non-existent, making 22% of his 0.4 attempts per game, and he shoots only 4.1 free throws a game despite the athleticism and skill to get to the line whenever he wants to.
In fact, let’s take this analysis of Derrick Rose’s scoring habits one step further. Up until March 13, Rose has scored over 29 points 8 times this season in 64 games. No way around it – that is an impressive figure, especially considering how Rose was clearly far from full strength until mid-December.
However, a closer look reveals that every one of those games can be placed into at least one of three categories:
Category A – Rose took an excessive amount of field goal attempts (season average: 17.8).
Category B – Rose made an excessive amount of long jumpers (16 to 23 feet. Season average: 3.1 makes).
Category C – Rose took an excessive amount of free throws (season average: 4.1 attempts).
Let’s look at those games, again, with the irreplaceable help of Hoopdata.com:
December 19 vs. Atlanta, 32 points
Category A: 24 shot attempts, made 14
Category B: 7 of 13 from 16 to 23 feet
Category C: 4 of 6 from the free throw line
Verdict: Categories A and B
January 2 vs. Orlando, 30 points
Category A: 23 shot attempts, made 11
Category B: 7 of 11 from 16 to 23 feet
Category C: 8 of 10 from the free throw line
Verdict: Categories A, B and C
January 1 vs. Washington, 37 points
Category A: 33 shot attempts, made 16
Category B: 4 of 12 from 16 to 23 feet
Category C: 5 of 7 from the free throw line
Verdict: Category A
January 22 @ Phoenix, 32 points
Category A: 21 shot attempts, made 15
Category B: 7 of 11 from 16 to 23 feet
Category C: 1 of 3 from the free throw line
Verdict: Category B
February 3 @ Philadelphia, 30 points
Category A: 22 shot attempts, made 10
Category B: 4 of 11 from 16 to 23 feet
Category C: 9 of 10 from the free throw line
Verdict: Category C
February 16 vs. New York, 29 points
Category A: 18 shot attempts, made 14
Category B: 7 of 10 from 16 to 23 feet
Category C: 1 of 1 from the free throw line
Verdict: Category B
February 26 vs. Portland, 33 points
Category A: 25 shot attempts, made 15
Category B: 8 of 11 from 16 to 23 feet
Category C: 3 of 4 from the free throw line
Verdict: Categories A and B
March 6 vs. Dallas, 34 points
Category A: 22 shot attempts, made 15
Category B: 10 of 13 from 16 to 23 feet
Category C: 4 of 4 from the free throw line
Verdict: Category B
Final Tally for 8 games:
Category A: 4 times
Category B: 6 times
Category C: 2 times
Now, granted, 8 games is a pretty small sample size, but to my humble eyes, the correlation here is too large to ignore: for Rose to score big, he has to either take an excessive amount of shots, get hot on long 2s or get to the free throw line.
Of those three categories, only one is dependable. Taking too many shots is bad and inefficient in a team game. Getting ridiculously hot from 16 to 23 feet every now and then is nice, but can’t be counted on when you’re a 43% shooter from that range. Once again, only one conclusion can possibly be drawn from these figures: Rose needs to get to the line more frequently.
Sadly, of these three categories, getting to the line is the rarest.
This is something Rose simply HAS to improve if he is to ever become an elite scorer. And there is no reason to believe he can’t: again, he can get by his man at will. It’s just a matter of finishing aggressively and drawing the foul instead of pulling back for the long jumper.
Same with developing a three-point shot: if he can make them from 22 feet, he should be able to make them from 24. Once he gets those two things down, he can be unstoppable as a scorer on a nightly basis. He might even develop a post game down the road – he is certianly tall enough for it to be effective. But that will require adding a lot of muscle.
From scoring we move to Rose’s other supposed strength: passing.
Coming out of college, Rose was touted as the point guard of the future, and yet he seems to lack the see-all court vision possessed by the true greats of the position. It’s not like Rose’s 5.7 assists per game are bad – it’s good enough for 15th in the league. And he’s still only 21 years old. But one expects so much more from him. Also, that figure becomes much less impressive when you factor in how much Rose is on the court, and how much he handles the ball. He is just 82nd in the league in assist ratio among qualifying players and a startling 56th among point guards. He is also 45th in the league (35th among point guards) in assist to turnover ratio. He ranks better in assists per minute (26th, 23rd among point guards), but this still isn’t the stuff of legends.
Again, let’s use some numbers to create a slightly unfair yet still intriguing argument.
The Chicago Bulls’ second best passer is Kirk Hinrich, who weighs in at 4.5 assists per game. Simple math shows that this is 1.2 less than Rose. Now, using Hoopdata.com. let’s look at the way Hinrich and Rose get those assists.
|
Assists Leading To: |
|
Player Name |
At Rim |
<10 Ft |
10-15 Ft |
16-23 Ft |
2FG |
3FG |
| Derrick Rose |
1.8 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
2.1 |
4.5 |
1.3 |
| Kirk Hinrich |
1.7 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
4.0 |
0.4 |
As you can see, from 15 feet in both players get their assists more or less the same way. The difference is caused by the long 2s (+0.5 Rose), and the three-point shots (+0.9 Rose).
Why, then, are Rose’s and Hinrich’s assist numbers identical from inside 15 and different from outside? Well, it’s simple: Hinrich and Rose pass to the exact same players … except that Hinrich passes to Rose, and Rose passes to Hinrich. And, indeed, Hinrich makes 1.4 threes per game, and is assisted on 1.29 of them while Rose makes 0.1 per game and is assisted on 0.02 of them.
The difference: Hinrich is assisted on 1.2 more threes per game than Derrick Rose. Derrick Rose gives 1.2 more assists per game than Kirk Hinrich. If both those numbers look like the same number, it’s because they are.
Now, the previous sentence probably has you thinking one of two things: “Wow, now isn’t that an interesting coincidence, I never thought about that” or “this guy is completely incapable of creating a valid statistical argument.”
And yes, as I said, this is hardly a complete stat. Obviously, saying the difference between Rose’s and Hinrich’s assist numbers are caused solely by Rose having more one more three point shooter to pass to than Hinrich is foolish. Hell, I just dismissed it with the chart above. But personally, what I’m looking for (and also seeing) here isn’t an absolute solution to all unanswered questions – just an unusual occurrence that might show more than it seems.
There are plenty of factors which could affect this stat in Hinrich’s favor, meaning the difference should be bigger than 1.2: Hinrich has Rose to pass to and yet trails in passes to long 2s (as mentioned above, Rose’s favorite zone) and inside 15 feet, where Hinrich only 1.1 makes a game and is assisted on 0.4 of them, and Rose makes 5.5 shots from inside 15 feet and is assisted on 1.6 of them.
Then again, there are many factors that show Rose is not a better passer than Hinrich: Hinrich plays less minutes, plays much more off the ball and plays most of his point guard minutes with the second unit, which is pretty inferior scoring wise. (Flip Murray and Hakim Warrick are nice, but Loul Deng is a beast). Not to mention Hinrich’s far superior assist ratio.
Whichever way you turn it, this is an interesting exercise. Comparing Rose’s assist numbers to Hinrich’s is much easier than comparing him to other point guards on different teams, since, as mentioned above, Hinrich and Rose have pretty much the same supporting cast. And until we have stats that show us not only the zones to which players pass their assists, but the players who receive them, the best we can do with these stats is say that to the naked eye it seems that much, if not most, of Rose’s assist advantage over Hinrich is due to Hinrich being a better option to pass to behind the arc.
All these considered, I find it hard to say that Rose is a much better passer than Hinrich.
Now, this isn’t a knock against Hinrich. He’s been much more successful doing what he does best (playing basketball) than I’ve been at what I do best (umm… eating? Let me get back to you.) Still, if you’re creating a world-class point guard from scratch, chances are you’re not saying “Oh, before I forget, you gotta give me Kirk Hinrich’s passing.”
But let’s move on from Rose’s offense to Rose’s defense, which is far from spectacular, to say the least.
It’s much harder to fully analyze, seeing how defensive stats are harder to come by, but the numbers we have are sub-par at best. 3.6 boards (2.8 defensive), 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks per game – all fit perfectly into the “well, it’s OK, but that’s it” mold. What’s disturbing about this numbers, though, is how they compare to last season: 3.9 boards (2.7 defensive), 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks. Basically, Rose has done nothing to improve on where he was last season.
This defensive stagnation can be attributed to what seems, to my eyes, to make Rose a bad defender: effort. Rose just doesn’t seem to try enough on defense. Probably the most telling figure here is that Rose has only drawn 5 charges all year. Drawing a charge is 100% effort – even bad defenders can draw charges effectively. Derek Fisher and Steve Nash, for example, are probably among the worst players in the league defensively at this point, and have drawn 46 and 34 charges, respectively. Even younger, less experienced point guards, like Stephen Curry and Aaron Brooks, have much more charges credited to their favor (24 and 18) than Rose.
Ditto with committing fouls.
Rose commits only 1.2 fouls per game: the league average is 2.1 fouls in only 24 minutes. If you’re playing 36 minutes a game and you commit just over 1 foul in that period, you are either fantastic at defending with your body and not your arms, or you’re avoiding contact and not trying hard enough. Rose hardly qualifies for the first category. Obviously, scarcely fouling is a good thing, but it’s a symptom of lacking effort, and that is inexcusable.
Again, this is something Rose has the tools to improve. He has monster athleticism and good size for a point guard, meaning he could be one of those Dwyane-Wade-esque freaks that average a block a game from the guard spot or those Jason-Kidd-esque freaks that average 7 boards.
But he’s nowhere near there yet. It’s not just the highly publicized things, like Rajon Rondo exploding against him for a near triple double average in a 7 game series last postseason. It’s also the small, random, unnoticable 16 and 9 from Randy Foye in February, or the Mike Conley drive that was just too easy. And sure, defense comes with time – Lebron James was a terrible defender early in his career and is now a 1st Team All-Defense kind of guy. It doesn’t mean we should ignore an entire half of the game when evaluating a player. And right now, Rose’s defensive half of the game is atrocious.
All in all, I hate knocking on the guy.
As I said, he’s a joy to watch, and I can’t wait to see how good he is when he matures and has a good team around him. And for all his faults, he’s still a very good basketball player. You don’t average 20, 4 and 6 just by playing 36 minutes a game and being a number one option – you need to have the skills to pull it off. It’s just too soon. Too soon to call him an elite player. Too soon to call him an elite point guard. Too soon to call him elite, period.
He’s great. He’s young. He’s exciting.
But not elite. Not now.
Let’s not make the mistake we’ve made so many times with so many guys. Let him develop. Let him learn what to do and how to do it. How to take those 9/21 shooting, 21 points kind of nights and turn them into 9/21 shooting, 13/14 from the line, 35 points kind of nights. How to find his teammates for 3 quarters and take over in the fourth.
And believe me, when he does all those things – when he’s the best guy on a title contender and smashing everybody in his way – you won’t need me or anyone else to tell you why he’s not overrated anymore. Everyone will know.
There won’t be a doubt in anyone’s mind.
Once the rest of his game catches up to his athleticism, Derrick will be destroying the League.
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Yes.
wow…harsh,m but true. Rose definitely has not made the leap that I was hoping to see. At this point I would compare him to a young baron davis, only if baron was actually in shape. similar physical tools, similar ability to take over as a passer/scorer, both have iffy defense and shooting ability, both disappear too often (rose because he lacks killer instinct/alpha dog mentality, baron because he doesn’t have the motivation to avoid mailing in games). but i agree – last year i was guilty of going overboard on the rose hype, now it looks like we might be waiting longer than we thought.
by the way everyone when you’re done here make sure to check out http://www.arjun-allthingssports.blogspot.com for candid and insightful analysis
It’s thoughtful but way off base, imo. The only thing I’d agree with is Rose’s defense is which poor at the moment.
For the rest, there are several assumed facts that I take umbrage with. One is the idea that 3′s are an efficient shot. That’s true if you’re 40% plus from there. Rose is shooting over 50% the last 3 months from the floor overall. In no way shape or form can that be considered inefficient. You don’t have to shoot 3-pointers.
Another issue is shots attempted and Rose supposedly taking too many shots. For one, 17 shots a game is nothing approaching excessive. Jordan, for example, used to take 22-24 a game and I don’t hear anyone calling that excessive. You can’t score if you don’t shoot.
Also, total shots taken are skewed by free throw attempts. Missed shots on fouls don’t count as missed field goals even though they are. So, Lebron James technically averages 20 shots a game, but in reality heaves up many more, thus explaining his 10 FT attempts per.
As far as FT’s attempted, there are numerous theories among Bulls’ observers as to why his totals aren’t higher. One is that he’s so strong, he bounces off players more often than not instead off flailing or falling. Either way, sure, you’d like to see him get more free throws.
If you’ve watched Rose play night in, night out, you’d know he has an array of shots, probably more than any player in the league. To say most of his points come from the same move is completely inaccurate. And even if they did, so what? Most of Kareem’s points came from the sky hook.
Going to the Hinrich/ Rose comparison, Hinrich does more passing than shooting (thankfully). And, as noted, Hinrich can pass to Rose (50% shooter) while Rose has to pass to Hinrich (40% shooter).
“How to find his teammates for 3 quarters and take over in the fourth.”
With all due respect, do you watch Rose play? Because he did this against the Rockets last night. He did it against the WIzards twice this season. He did it against the Blazers a few weeks ago. I could go on.
“How to take those 9/21 shooting, 21 points kind of nights and turn them into 9/21 shooting, 13/14 from the line, 35 points kind of nights.”
Rose hasn’t had many 9/21 shooting nights in recent months. Over his last 13 games, he’s 55% from the floor. Basically, all you’re complaining about here is that he doesn’t get to the FT line 13/14 times a game.
Let’s look at FT attempts by all NBA point guards: Rose is 9th and not far behind Parker, Paul and Miller at 4.0 per game. The only ones over 5.4 are Devin Harris (6.3), Gilbert Arenas (6.5) and Chauncey Billups (7.2). James, Howard and Durant lead the league at exactly 10 per game. As I said earlier, I’d love to see Rose at the line more, but his atttempts are well above-average for a point guard.
All this isn’t to say Rose can’t get better. Again, if you’ve watched him consistently since he came in the league, you’d realize he has improved in several areas. But I think you’re picking nits with some of these complaints.
Great! I really like stats in the NBA, and you’re using it very well! Thanks Hoopdata for the stats, and thank you for this article.
a lot of my own sentiments are in this article. very nice read and true
I agree with most of the points in this article, but I think it fails to take into account Rose’s injury woes this year. If you take a look at his Jan/Feb/March splits, they’re much better than his season-long averages, though still deficient in the FT/3pt/AST areas.
“both have iffy defense and shooting ability,”
Rose does not have iffy shooting ability. Does anyone who comments on these things WATCH the players they’re opining on play?
He kind of reminds me of all those high scoring point guards who put up great numbers but not do much for the team such as…
Stephon Marbury
Steve Francis
Damon Stoudamire
Kenny Anderson
Rod Strickland
@cam
“Another issue is shots attempted and Rose supposedly taking too many shots. For one, 17 shots a game is nothing approaching excessive. Jordan, for example, used to take 22-24 a game and I don’t hear anyone calling that excessive. You can’t score if you don’t shoot.”
He isn’t saying that 17 shots is too many. He’s saying scoring only 20 per when you are taking 17 shots is inefficient scoring, relatively speaking. Jordan took that many shots and he generally scored between 1.3 and 1.4 points per shot over the course of the season, sometimes more. The same can be said for most of the elite scorers in NBA history and today. It’s not just about volume, its about volume AND efficiency. Rose only has the volume down at this point. 1.16 points per field goal attempt is mediocre… especially for a guy whose strength is supposed to be scoring. The fact is its hard to be a great scorer when you can’t hit threes and you can’t get to the line consistently.
“Let’s look at FT attempts by all NBA point guards: Rose is 9th and not far behind Parker, Paul and Miller at 4.0 per game. The only ones over 5.4 are Devin Harris (6.3), Gilbert Arenas (6.5) and Chauncey Billups (7.2). James, Howard and Durant lead the league at exactly 10 per game. As I said earlier, I’d love to see Rose at the line more, but his atttempts are well above-average for a point guard.”
It’s not about raw attempts. Basic per game numbers like that really don’t tell us much.
Just like points per shot is a good number to look at to analyze overall scoring efficiency… Free Throw Attempts per Field Goal Attempt is a good number to look at to determine a player’s proficiency at drawing fouls. For Rose the number is .226 free throws for every FGA. I’m pretty sure that’s below league average for a point guard. Hoopdata says last year the league average was .277 for point guards, and I’d expect a similiar number this season. But for comparison’s sake, the other guys you mentioned: Billups is at .546, Harris and Miller are both at .440, Parker is at .346, Chris Paul is at .311
STATS might say something about rose but for one thing he is not overrated. If you look at current events the Rose was hurt with a wrist injury. The bulls went on a 10 game losing streak. Rose comes back and the Bulls win 2 in a row with rose scoring 27 and 20 in his debuts. Chicago’s had a 1.7 % chance of getting Rose and luckly they got him and he has turn the team and the city around. Rated i would put him not OVERRATED
Caleb, that all comes down to more FT attempts, something I covered. Or I suppose Rose could make 1/3 of his shots 3′s, assuming he hits 40% of them. But I’m fine with his assortment of 2′s when he’s making +50% of them.
Rose doesn’t initiate contact that much and he doesn’t flail his arms or flop like he’s been shot. Perhaps needs to. As noted above, Rose takes a lot of 15-22 foot jumpers which probably has something to do with it. He doesn’t get fouled on many of them because players back off respecting his driving ability.
I just have a hard time knocking someone who is averaging 25 points and 6 assists on 55% shooting since the all-star break. And that’s on a team that’s been without Noah and Deng.
Rose takes a lot of shots because hes the best player on the team. I agree that his defense needs work.
Anybody that actually watches Roses knows that he is NOT overrated…
Another writer trying to get some face time with outrageous headlines…
Cam,
True shooting percentage takes into consideration the overall efficiency of a player’s scoring; that said, shooting 50% on 2pt shots is not terribly efficient if there is no complementary (and efficient) 3pt shooting, or a high volume of FT/FGA. As a Knicks fan, I would gladly take the explosive young man as my starting PG, but he’s not terribly efficient (a la S. Nash/C. Billups), nor a well-rounded stud (a la J. Kidd/ C. Paul).
Also, even if his play has improved since the all-star break, it’s not as if those few days off (which, of course, were not exactly that) provide any kind of measurable median by which one can separate data sets. It’s an arbitrary sample, and thus, does not tell us much of anything. If Derrick Rose had acquired $6 million dollar bionic heel-springs, you could likely make an argument that the sample is meaningful. But since he has not, I’d advise against it.
More on shooting statistics. The excellent Mike Kurylo from Knickerblogger.net writes:
“Another stat that should be replaced is FG%. Why? Field goal percentage doesn’t account for the scoring bonus in a three point shot, which is a lower percentage shot. Sharp shooter Kyle Korver’s career FG% (as of 2007) is a lowly 41.3%. If FG% rates a good shooter like Korver so poorly, then it’s obviously not a good stat to use. So replace FG% with eFG% (effective field goal percentage), which compensates for the extra point in a three point shot. Korver’s eFG% is a more robust 53.6%.
But eFG% isn’t the only statistic used to measure a shooter. True Shooting Percentage (TS%) accounts not only for three pointers, but free throws made as well. For instance a player that hits a layup, gets fouled, and hits the extra point is more valuable than the guy that just sinks a jumper. To compare players with respect to their total scoring contribution, this is the stat to use.
In 50 Words or Less
Field goal percentage (FG%) should be replaced by eFG% or TS%. Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) compensates properly for three pointers, while true shooting percentage (TS%) compensates for three pointers and free throws.
Examples Why
Well I used Kyle Korver above, but otherwise you can look at any player that takes a large amount of three pointers or gets (and converts) a lot of free throws. Players like Kevin Martin, Jason Kapono, Manu Ginobili, and Shawn Marion come to mind as players who are misrepresented by FG%.”
http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=608
No offense, because this was a very well-written article that highlights most of my (and most Bulls fans) concerns with Rose, but the whole distinction of “overrated/underrated” based on a single All-Star game berth is ridiculous. It’s one of the most useless distinctions in pro sports (especially now that’s it is boiled down to a popularity contest), and it’s not like the East is stocked with great PGs.
“both disappear too often (rose because he lacks killer instinct/alpha dog mentality, baron because he doesn’t have the motivation to avoid mailing in games). but i agree – last year i was guilty of going overboard on the rose hype, now it looks like we might be waiting longer than we thought.”
This is hilarious considering almost every draft expert projected Rose as a project, someone who would have a lot of peaks and valleys on the way to a good career. In fact, this was the exact logic used by every pro-Michael Beasley supporter out there. One prospect was NBA-ready, the other was too shy, too raw.
so a long two is inefficient even if the player excels at them? and you follow that by stating the three is one of the three most efficient shots in the league. I guess that’s why the league 3-point percentage average is in the mid 30′s while field goal percentage is in the mid 40′s. I’m not wasting my time with the other 3000 words of this after that. and the only reason why he made the all star game was because there was no point guards who were healthy to fill the position.
well that’s why noam schiller is in his desk wrting crap and drose is doing what he loves to do and earning money ten times the salary of him..agree with the rest, people who ACTUALLY watch drose play knows that he is not overrated. yeah i know the stats that the journalist wrote above is accurate but its a fact that when drose is present in the game the bulls has a chance to win, the 10 game skid speaks for itself, to noam schiller i suggest instead of analyzing the stats of drose, go buy a bulls ticket and watch him play.
Overrated? Do you guys even watch basketball or even watch the Bulls play? Have you seen them play with Derrick Rose and without? Or do you stats guys just type in these numbers into your stat software and just base your thoughts from that? You stats guys are the same people who said Kevin Durant was overrated last year and that he was terrible. Nice call on that one guys. And nice job going with a 8 game sample set. You want to write a long piece criticizing the kid, yet you guys can only put together a 8 game sample set of your choice? This post is a joke and anyone who knows or watches basketball, knows that Derrick Rose is a star. Could his injury earlier this season have been a factor that brought his numbers down? Could the fact that he has clowns on his team as teammates be another reason? Again, do you even watch Bulls games? The kid is finally stepping out and hitting the 3 ball. Go back and watch the last 2 games. Also FYI McFly, but the kid is 21 years old. Why all the hate? But no, you guys are right again, he is overrated. The NBA Coaches that selected him for the All Star Game in just his second year for nothing. I think they know a little more about basketball than you guys, no offense. Let me know if you need me to buy you guys another ti89 or stats program next year when Derrick Rose puts up sick numbers and craps on your post. Again, go back a little and read the same kinda posts on Kevin Durant and now fast forward a little bit. The same thing will happen again with Derrick Rose. And when it does, I will be sure to come on your website and clown it every single day for the rest of my life. Keep up the crap work, clowns.
Man some of you guys are boneheaded. He isn’t saying Rose isn’t a good player, or that there isn’t a chance he’ll get better (much better perhaps). The point is – he is NOT an *ELITE* player at this point in time. Sorry but the stats simply don’t lie here.
“and you follow that by stating the three is one of the three most efficient shots in the league. I guess that’s why the league 3-point percentage average is in the mid 30’s while field goal percentage is in the mid 40’s. I’m not wasting my time with the other 3000 words of this after that.”
Don’t be mad because you don’t get it. Let me explain:
League average eFG%: 50.1%
League average eFG% from 16-23 feet: 39.6%
League average eFG% from three: 53.2%
As you might be aware of, a made three point attempt gets you one more point than a made two point attempt. That fact is accounted for by the effective FG-percentage (eFG%). If Rose would manage to hit only one of every three three point attempts (which would be below league average, but much better than he is right now), he’d get one point out of every three pointer he takes. That’s much more than he gets out of every long two pointer he takes right now, even though he is pretty good at making those.
You might consider reading the rest of the article. It’s pretty good, once you understand what it actually says.
These stats do not take in account a few things:
The article points out that Drose is an assist point guard, someone who cuts hard and opens up teammates for easy shots.
1.) The Bulls traded all of the scorers so they can get a shot at a full boat free agent.
2.) Injuries
3.) Drose 3point assists are only to Hinrich BECAUSE HINRICH IS THE ONLY THREE POINT SHOOTER LEFT ON THE TEAM.
4.) Look at the teams overall shooting percentage before you knock on his assists per game.
Defense – He has never been taught how to play defense. Not at Memphis and especially not by Vinny. He needs a good coach to help him adapt to guarding NBA players, he has basic defensive skills but he still needs to be taught how to stay in front of NBA players.
Breakout games – This is a style he isn’t use to playing. He is a pass first player. The fact that he dominates the game like that is a testament to how good he actually is, he goes against his nature to win games because his team sucks. During those games teams challenged Drose to beat them with his jumpshot and he did. How many point guards in history had the ability to break down defenses and dish for easy shots, or turn it on and dominate a game? KEYWORD: POINT GUARD
Stats aren’t worth much if you don’t have any context.
Nicely done. For those clamoring on about monthly splits — you can point to any NBA player anywhere and point to his best month (or two or three) in support of, “But this is who he really is, when all the other factors are equal.” But that’s not how the NBA works. The NBA season is 82 games long, and the great players are great from game 1, and most times, well into the Playoffs. (In short, I’m making a sample size argument)
Derrick Rose isn’t the player he’s been in February and March until he’s that player from November through April. If and when he gets there, you will be right. Until then, you’re not.
The only thing more interesting than Noam’s well-reasoned post is watching the fanboys get all lathered up at the concept of someone not thinking Rose is the second coming. I’m not sure any of them read the actual article–it’s pretty damn complimentary of Derrick afterall–but it makes for amusing reading.
And who the heck projected Rose as a “project”? I agree many thought Beasley would be more of an instant-impact guy, but nobody was expecting Rose to be Hinrich’s apprentice for a few years.
“If Rose would manage to hit only one of every three three point attempts (which would be below league average, but much better than he is right now),” – finzent
Rose is 12-40, 30%. If you disregard halfcourt heaves at the end of quarters, he’s about 12-36, 33%.
Personally, I think demoting marks on a player for only being excellent inside the 3-point line is absurd.
Incidentally, Mark West has the 3rd best eFG% in NBA history. Brent Barry the 8th.
“Derrick Rose isn’t the player he’s been in February and March until he’s that player from November through April. ”
While I get the point, Rose has been terrific since January, not February, and he was playing on a bad ankle for at least the first month. It’s pretty obvious who the real Rose is.
on the 3pt shot or long 2pt shot argument: making 33% of 3′s is better (or more efficient) then making 49% of long 2′s.
“making 33% of 3’s is better (or more efficient) then making 49% of long 2’s.”
How do you figure that?
33-100 (33%) 3′s = 99 points
49-100 (49%) 2′s = 98 points
Seems identical to me.
Bob 3pt shots are more efficient because they produce more pts, its why the midrange game has gone extinct for the most part. It truly is the least efficient shot in basketball and why so many execs have disdain for it. Even the best midrange shooters MUST have the ability to get to the line, or hit 3′s. Its a good weapon to have in your arsenal but not something you want to rely on as heavily as Rose does.
The upside to the midrange game is that you NEVER turn the ball over, which is why when measuring a players efficiency Offensive Rating is what matters most. Those mentioning MJ arent getting the point, if one player is scoring at ridiculous rate, you want him shooting. MJ has a disgusting offensive rtg, Rose does not, therefore his shot total in context is abit extreme. Had he been more efficient not only would he score more, but the justification of his attempts would be easier to argue.
Only one problem, because Rose is SOOO reliant on his athletic ability hes a completely different player when hes not up to speed we shouldnt let the data from a different player skew the #’s. This is why Bulls fans love to dismiss the first 2 months or so. Cant say I disagree, his play in this stretch has been very consistent so I take it that its no fluke. He has a PER in the 21-22 range in this timespan so, while on the season he may not have been All-Star worthy, he is in fact an all-star caliber player. So long as these #’s hold up and hes not dealing with a nagging injury. Most stars can play through those injuries, but thats what makes them SuperSTARS, ALL-STARS are a completely different case.
“Most stars can play through those injuries, but thats what makes them SuperSTARS, ALL-STARS are a completely different case.”
Rose did play through it once the regular season began. He missed the entire pre-season though, yet another reason for his slow start.
I agree that he’s over rated right now, but I disagree with the extent to which most of those leaving comments here think that’s the case. I also think those who are pointing out that all the Bulls fans are getting so worked up are off base. Believe me, us Bulls fans are perfectly happy with him and the progress he’s making. I think the Rose haters in here caring this much about the topic are a bit ridiculous. It’s true what Cam said above, that stats without context are not very useful. Rose plays the game the way his coaches ask him to and based on what is required of him given the skill level of his current teammates. Also, he’ll draw more fouls as he gets to be more of a veteran because, well, that’s just how NBA games are called. He does have a ways to go in that category though and more acting, flailing and flopping would (sadly) help. A single decent three point shooter on his team would help his assist numbers. I think the article or one of the other posters mentioned that he doesn’t pass the ball inside enough. Who exactly is he supposed to pass it inside to? Guys, numbers are informative but not the whole story.
I don’t think anyone posting in the comments section has been a “Rose Hater”. I think hater is an extremely overused term and one people call someone when they have a hard time defending their point. Everyone in here agrees that Rose is a great player the issue is mostly based on just how great of a player he is. I find it more ridiculous that people have a hard time figuring out why a 3 point shot is more efficient than a 2 point shot and the importance of getting to the line. With that said is he really that overrated? I would say he’s pretty up there for his position. Maybe it only seems overrated if you go to a Bull’s board and everyone is talking about him, so in comparison it looks like he’s being talked about more. I just don’t really see him being that overrated if at all.
“making 33% of 3’s is better (or more efficient) then making 49% of long 2’s.”
How do you figure that?
33-100 (33%) 3’s = 99 points
49-100 (49%) 2’s = 98 points
Seems identical to me.
———————————————————-
The point he is making is that you can shoot a much worse percentage from three point range and it’s still more efficient than shooting a higher percentage of long twos. Don’t look at the absolute numbers, interpret the spread. What does it say that you can shoot 16% worse from downtown and still achieve the same amount of point production? It says on a per shot basis a 3 pointer is more efficient than a two.
One more thing…Derrick Rose is supremely talented and is going to be a stud in the League for a long time. However, in terms of those arguing for his merits as an “Elite” player…Can you honestly say on a nightly basis he is on the same level as LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Bosh, Carmelo, Howard, Nowitzki, Nash, Durant, etc? The answer is “No”. But that’s not to say he won’t be there in a few years. He’s in that second tier of great players at this point behind guys like Brandon Roy.
“The point he is making is that you can shoot a much worse percentage from three point range and it’s still more efficient than shooting a higher percentage of long twos”- Chris
Yes, but it depends on what the percentages are. ADL’s example (33% three’s/49% two’s) comes out equal.
“It says on a per shot basis a 3 pointer is more efficient than a two.”
Again, what are the percentages? I’m guessing it goes without saying that 3′s are worth more than 2′s. It’s never explained here what 3-pt percentage would be acceptable for taking many of them instead of 2-pointers hit at a high percentage. If Rose shot a lot of 3′s at 20%, I’d be the first to point out that isn’t particularly helpful. But he’s not hurting his team with missed 3′s. He’s not helping them with made 3′s yet either. But he is helping them with a very high percentage of made 2′s, regardless of what part of the floor he’s making them from.
One thing that splits do tell us, however, since, you know, they are numbers like those that are being used in the article, is that Rose has continued to improve over the course of the season, especially post All-Star game. For example, in his last seven games, Rose has made as many 3s (6) as he has the rest of the season combined, in ten less total attempts, good for a 40 percent clip. I understand the hesitancy to go with a small sample size, but, let’s be real, Rose’s whole NBA career is a small sample size.
That being said, since December, his shooting percentage has risen each month, from 45 to 50.5 to 51.4 to 52.3. He’s also scoring more and passing a bit more efficiently while playing less minutes. So, while I agree with the premise of the article, that D-Rose, in only his second year, is overrated, it’s gotta be noted that people who watch the Bulls on the regular are seeing things the numbers given in the column aren’t showing.
sometimes a good player is not rated by his stats but the way he make his teammates play better. It is clear, w/o Drose, they go with almost 10 Losing streak and with him they are winning
good article, although I will say that saying Hinrich is as good of shot creater for his team as Rose is pretty heretical in my mind. You can you look at one year of UZR data and conclude that Derrick Jeter improved his defense as a 33 year old…more likely is that the sample is small and you need a larger set to smooth at the data.
Like many Bulls fans I see a confluence of factors that have us as excited about Rose as befitting a possible top 10 player: 1) His overall stats are degraded from when he clearly wasn’t “right’ early on in the season and was badly out of shape after missing all of the preseason, and 2) he’s improved as much in season as anyone most of us have ever seen. Since December he’s averaged 23/6/4 on 50% from the floor with a PER of 21. His defense has gone from atrocius to merely average. His mid-range game has gone from questionable to “money”. 3) the refs hate this guy. They hate that he bumps into centers and he usually wins, they hate that he doesn’t whine after every call, they hate that he doesn’t lean into guys first and try and make the shot as an afterthought. Now, with time those things should be easily corrected, it’s a feed-back loop from star to star calls to improved efficiency to superstar to superstar calls…
I guess I am not comfortable with the semantics here, either. He has been termed a “young star” and a “force” and was an All-Star.
So, I ask you all, is he the best player on his team, aka, is he better than Luol Deng?
Bulls fans would mostly say yes, I think. As we have watched people step in for Deng, where no one could step in for Rose, but that is a simple turn of phrase. I think all-together, at least, an easy argument is to be made for him being the best player on the team. So, when you are the best player on the team along with your game-play being the exciting kind in a large market. Boom.
For me, it would have been a miracle if he had played better than he has. I have such a hard time with the expectations of a guy who spent on year in college and entered the league with a rookie coach. The fans don’t need the numbers. We see it in almost every game. There are these moments where you see what he can do and he just doesn’t see it or doesn’t see it fast enough.
The thing I have noticed about him is when he takes a step forward, he stays there. There are plateaus at the end of his peaks, instead of dropoffs (and more peaks to come). We watched Deng for years, urging him to grow out of his passivity. He finally did it … this year. He beasted out on offense and defense (though I will appreciate him decreasing the offensive charges next year). Rose has had a much faster arc. I thought he played great defense on the gnatty fly that is Aaron Brooks, against the pick-machine that Houston is and he has begun to sniff the passing lanes and get those Wade-like behind the play blocks.
He is taking his sweet time and I couldn’t be more happy. Hell, I hope he does read this article, as I already trust that he has the openness to see his deficits and the talent to fill them. Someone mentioned Baron Davis and I am so with you, Davis was the first player I thought of as Rose started to flourish. But, I believe the differences will lead to greater team success for Rose. Again, the game in Houston, you saw him swing passes off his breakneck pace drive to Murray for Wide open shots. You/We can see that he is interested in running the machine of the offense and he is prepared to be the engine. A player like Davis is too comfortable taking over the game and making his teammates secondary (like, in the first quarter – I like Davis a lot, btw).
I have been very judgemental with Vinnie of late. In a funny way, I wonder if his occasional and reasonable ineptitude has helped Rose on a deeper level. The sense of urgency in Rose to make up for the many deficiencies of the team could have really helped him sharpen his focus. Either way, I really appreciate the way he has paid respect to what the team needs and where he is really at in his learning process. (Seriously, there were times in the season where I wondered if he would ever take a three-point shot. I love the fact that he would just step in and take the long 2. We see now, that he appears to be ready to shoot the shot, that he has prepared for the moment.
Thanks for the tangent space. s./
Man this article is plain bullshit.
I’m a Bulls fan, and I don’t get why people are in such a huff about this. The writer never said Rose would be unable to fix the holes in his game – he is simply pointing out what those holes are, and for the most part I agree.
One interesting historical comparison for Rose that I’ve been thinking about: Gary Payton. I was too young to have seen young Payton, but they seem to be similar on the surface (good size and strength for PG’s, mediocre 3-pt shooters). What was really interesting about Payton is that it took him a good 4-5 years to develop into what you’d call an elite PG (and he was a 4-year college player too!), and in his first few years he seemed to be a lot worse at many things than Rose (FT attempts, 3pt%, TS%; scoring generally). Even so, he managed to fix those things with time, so I think the outlook for Rose is very good in terms of rounding out his game. The biggest difference to note is that Payton already seemed to be a pretty good defender coming in (or at least a good ballhawk), and maybe a slightly better passer, so with that said Rose really should be making defense his first priority over the off-season.
these baron davis comparisons are awful. I love me some Baron, but he didn’t have a PER higher than Rose’s this year until he was 24 years old. Also, he’s NEVER had a TS% better than Rose’s this year. I’m taking stats I think that are hurtful to Rose because they include his horrible start and don’t reflect how well he’s played ever sense he got healthy, but still, Rose is clearly a much better player than Baron. Then you factor in the horrific knee injuries Baron already had coming out of college and this comparison is really head scratching.
Rose doesn’t compare well to anyone except a rich man’s Tony Parker and Kevin Johnson IMO. KJ was a hell of finisher but didn’t have to take on the scoring load that Rose does as a 21 year old PG, so even though KJ was a more efficient scorer I wouldn’t exactly say that’s a knock on Rose, as his usage is almost 33% higher. Rose is a legit 1st option on a horrible offensive team that has time and time again led them in the 4th. That’s the “it” factor many Bulls fans point to when they say rose will be a top 10 level superstar very soon.
I’ve always seen Derrick Rose as “What Stephon Marbury could have (should have) been,” with the quickness, mind-blowing array of elite NBA skills and strength at that size being the common denominators.
Both were born with Hall of Fame potential.
Only one of them will get there.
This is a definite example of over analysis. Many things to pick apart here , but i’ll start with the passing analysis. The reason Rose’s assist number are modest? Look at his teammates is there an outside shooter or inside scorer among them? The answer is no and those are the kinds of players that a pg needs to put up high assist numbers. And there is one huge difference between Hinrich and Rose. Hinrich gets to pass to Rose. Is Rose overrated? Not at all look at how bad the bulls are when he’s not playing( these past two weeks) or when he is clearly hobbled (the first two months of the season.)
Also Rose is trapped, doubled, and blitzed by opposing teams thus making the game easier for teammates, but harder for stat nerds because it can’t be qauntified. I hope poring over every possible statistic isn’t the future of basketball analysis.
no worries on the Baron Davis comparison, it is a wide-shot look at the two. part of it is simply the look of their jump shots. both are really strong guards who can float, finish & dunk on anyone.
Couple comments:
Rose isn’t very tall. He’s 6’1.5″ in socks, according to his pre-draft measurements. That puts him .25″ shorter than Devin Harris, .75″ shorter than Russell Westbrook. Still, Deron Williams is 6’1.75″ in socks, so it’s not like Rose is short. I suppose he’s sort of average in height for a PG.
He’s 200 pounds, so he probably won’t (or shouldn’t, at least) put on too much more weight. He could probably develop a post game and use it against most point guards at his current weight.
While Rose is one of the most explosive players in the league both vertically and on his first step (the eye test and his pre-draft measurements line up), I have serious doubts about his lateral quickness. His agility drill time was clocked at 11.69 seconds, which is nearly a full second slower than David Lee (not a bad athlete, but you’d presumably want your PG to be quicker than a frontcourt player), and .19 seconds slower than Channing Frye (ouch). I’ve looked through the last seven years of pre-draft measurements at draftexpress.com, and almost every point guard who is in his league in vertical and sprint speed typically clock in nearly a full second faster than Rose in this drill. And watching him play defense, he doesn’t do well in keeping guys like Rondo, Westbrook, and Harris out of the paint.
I don’t know if it’s a physical limitation (like cars, some people are built to haul ass in a straight line, and others are better whipping around corners) or a deficiency that training can overcome, but it is likely the reason why he struggles defensively. Even so, the dude is electric with the ball, and once he starts replacing 20 ft jumpers with the 23-24 variety (he’s shooting 2.1 threes a game at a 35% clip in March) and gets to the line a little more, his efficiency will spike. Since he’s only 21, chances are he’ll improve.
Basically what we take from this article is that in order to score more points, one must take more shots. Wow this is revolutionary. I’m going to tell everyone I finally figured it out. Please tell me how someone can score 40 points (ie Kobe the other night) Taking more shots and getting “hot”. Terrible article IMO.
Derrick rose is the best player in the NBA He Was the best at memphis and simeon highschool shout out to chicago south side/west side
Rose is the best player hands down. This writer says he loves rose but in this article he blasts rose and I can go on and on. Just to keep it short this article was innacurate and was just downright terrible